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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.
Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.
It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.
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First of all, I don't understand this supposed " west coast/east coast bias " or even " west coast/east coast horse " thing. It never really occured to me until seeing it on Internet message boards. I have even read mindless related stupidity on this topic wherein people suggest the Beyer figs have some sort of bias towards one coast ( if people only knew Beyer they would really laugh at how silly THAT is ). I don't care where they run, a good horse is a good horse, and if I felt it was a level playing field I would bet a horse from Jupiter if I thought he or she was the fastest horse in a positive situation in any given race. Bob and John? Of course he was the logical horse on paper ( OK, I bet Jazil, but the winning result was far and away my biggest exacta ). Simply put I don't identify horses by region....I do it by ability.
My problem with shippers is when I consider the connections suspicious ( which these days, for me, includes just about everybody ) then, at the very least, I need to see them achieve success out of town ( and not into known opium dens ). Lava Man's JCGC last year hardly instills any confidence. Obviously it was probably at least some sort of aberation but at the reasonably short price Lava Man will be in the Classic I am more than ready to take a stand against him.
Plus, as I also said before, his running style does not look to be advantageous for the likely race dynamics of the year's Classic. Since I consider Bernardini very much the horse to beat, and I apparently have a higher opinion of Invasor ( for better or worse ) than you do, I don't see how Lava Man fights off either or both of them and still has anything left in the tank for the remaining horses. I take stands.....and I loathe Lava Man's chances in this year's Classic AS THE RACE STANDS NOW.