[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

One of the main problems figuring this problem out is that not very many horses have tried the double you're speaking of.

Only 5 horses (Dancing Brave, Trempolino, Saumarez, Subotica, and Dylan Thomas) have attempted the feat. In addition, I'm pretty sure that Saumarez and Subotica were both upset winners of the Arc.

Meanwhile, 6 Arc also-rans have won the BC along with numerous placings.

It's true that only five have tried it but there's something interesting about that. Of the five, four were tried in the first nine years and that's after missing the first two years so really, four came in a seven year span. After Subotica in 1992, no more tried the race until 2007. I remember reading some years back that part of the reasoning was because of what I'm saying now. If you notice, there's that same sort of trend with the QE II and the Mile. They sent over eight winners and to try the Mile and all eight have lost. They haven't sent one to the Mile though since 1998 So eight in the first 15 running and none in the last 10. It might be strictly a coincidence that no winners of either race has come over and won the Mile or Turf and it's especially odd since so many also-rans have come and done well in both races. But I don't think it's coincidence that they have stopped even trying. I actually think it's two main reasons. One is because the horses are a little over the top, again hard to explain because of the also-rans. But another reason why I think it's hard is because I think the winners of those two European horses are often better suited to longer races in the US. I've always thought that you could add at least a furlong and often two furlongs to what most would consider their best distance at home. I've always thought QE II winners would be better suited to the Classic and you've seen in recent years that they've been trying that now and even ran Falbrav in the Turf. Perhaps the reason also-rans from the QE II have been successful in the Mile because 8f was their best distance and that's why they came up short in England. Perhaps the same reasoning applies in some way to the Arc. They can handle 12f just fine and that's why the Turf is not a problem but the reason they can't win the Arc is because the Arc more demanding than the 12f would suggest and maybe if Arc winners were able to come over here for a 13-14f race, they'd dominate it.