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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.
running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:
1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace
2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat
3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed
4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race
5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE
I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).
What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.
P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.
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What Ateam said is basically what I'm getting at.
As far as Better Talk Now, I've always been a fan of how he's been able to stay relevant for many, many years. I know he needed a good setup to win but that doesn't mean that what he did is not admirable.
As far as Kodiak Kowboy running a "good" race in the Carter in your opinion, we'll agree to disagree, I thought the thing fell into his lap and he was the only horse to make a meaningful off the pace move.
NT