Quote:
|
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.
I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.
You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.
Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.
The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.
Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.
NT
|
When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.
running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:
1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace
2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat
3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed
4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race
5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE
I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).
What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.
P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.