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Originally Posted by dean smith
I think it's funny that it is near-unanimous that in a one-on-one match race, Zenyatta would have zero chance of beating RA, when it seems to me that the better horse would be able to get from Point A to Point B in faster time. Zenyatta's success is dependant on the pace of the rest of the field. RA dictates that pace and runs them off their feet. Someone has got to explain to me how a stretch runner who has run four times against nobodies has a chance to win HOY over a monster who has laid waste to the best thrown at her eight times.
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match races don't necessarily tell you which horse is better, since match races are generally won by whomever breaks best. the one in front dictates the entire race. do you really believe seabiscuit was a superior horse to war admiral? assault vs armed...swaps and nashua? a closer is doomed, because the leader can dawdle, keeping plenty in reserve for the finish.