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Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
Do you think Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons didn't know these things? Or Ben Jones?
You're stating the obvious ... and treating it as though it were some kind of a revelation.
Trainers today simply aren't as good as trainers from decades ago ... because they don't have the same objectives. Essentially ... they aren't even in the same business.
Trainers of G1-potential horses once were in the business of taking young horses and developing them into professional athletes. Today they're in the business of protecting investments ... and attempting to hit the huge jackpot with their shares of one or two multi-million dollar syndications ... which will make them financially secure for the rest of their lives.
All of these responses keep dancing around ... and avoiding ... the very simple question that I asked ... so let me try again ...
If trainers today are so great ... have such deep understandings of their horses ... and how best to handle them ... AND ... if spacing races and having fresh horses is such a great strategy ...
... how come none of them or their methods have been able to develop a horse ... not a single one ... into a 2YO champion and a 3YO champion (and a 4YO champion)?
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The reason I mentioned that the great trainers train every horse differently is because I was making the point that these good trainers can see how their horses respond to different things. If you were to believe Phalaris' theory, you would have to believe that these good trainers can't tell what works and what doesn't. If these trainers couldn't see the effects of their methods on each horse and be able to adjust their method based on how the horse is responding, then there would be no skill in training. Everyone could do it and everyone could do it equally well. You would just train every horse the same. You would gallop every horse 1 1/2 miles every day and work them every 6 days. Anyone could do that. If you did that, you wouldn't be successful. You need to adjust based on how your training is effecting the horse. But according to Phalaris, these trainers can't even tell what is effective and what isn't.
Your theory that trainers aren't as good as they used to be as based on the fact that no 2 year old champion wins the 3 year old championship is ridiculous. That would be like saying that basketball players are not as good these days because nobody ever scores 100 points any more like Wilt. The competition is tougher these days. The fact that nobody scores 100 points does not prove that the players aren't as good today.
Anyway, there are numerous possible other reasons as to why no BC Juvenille has won the Derby. One reason is that the horses today are not as sound as they used to be and if you run too many times as a 2 year old you may not be as effective as a 3 year old. Another reason is that some trainers don't want to even try it because they see that horses that win the BC Juvenille have never won a Derby. To win the BC Juvenille, a horse needs to have at least 2-3 races under his belt. Most trainers know this and they don't want to push their horse. They'd rather take their time and point for the Derby and skip the BC Juvenille. I think it is tough to win the BC Juvenille and the KY Derby but I think it can be done and I think it will be done in the near future. I think that many of the good trainers are figuring out the best way to win both races. In my opinion, the best way is to plan for the BC Juvenille to be your horse's 3rd or at the most 4th career race. Then the horse should get a rest after the BC Juvenille and should have 3 preps in their 3 year old year. That way the Derby would be the horse's 7th or 8th career start. In general, that seems to be a good number of races. It's not too few and it's not too many. As everyone knows, no horse has ever won the Derby that didn't run as a 2 year old, so we know that a horse needs to at least have a decent amount of conditioning under their belt to win the Derby. A horse with only 2-3 career races is not going to win the Derby. How do I know? I know because it never happens. Just like I know that a horse that runs 15 times a year is not going to win many big races. I know beacuse it practically never happens these days. Both of those things are very obvious. A horse that only has 2-3 lifetime races is not going to win the Derby. And a horse that runs too often is rarely going to be able to win big races. This is common sense amongst the good trainers and common sense to any observer who isn't blind.
I would agree with BB that there has been some human error that is probably repsonsible for horses never winning the BC Juvenille and the Derby. I can think of at least one horse right off the top of my head that was mishandled and should have won both races.