BTW, Gary West had a good column on a related note:
http://startelegramsports.typepad.co...rachel-go.html
August 28, 2009
How much further can Rachel go?
No challenger can beat her in the Woodward. Rachel Alexandra, quite simply, is several lengths better than the older horses who are likely to line up against her on Sept. 5 at Saratoga. Asiatic Boy, It’s a Bird, Macho Again, Bullsbay – no, they can’t beat her.
But she can lose. And not just because it’s a horse race and anything can happen, as Mine That Bird reminded everyone on the first Saturday in May and as horses continue to remind us everyday.
No, they can’t beat her in the Woodward. As trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said, nobody wants to run against Rachel Alexandra these days. She’s so talented and intimidating she could scare away older horses from their feed tubs. McLaughlin said he would consider taking Asiatic Boy elsewhere and traveling all the way across the country, to Del Mar for the Pacific Classic, rather than take on Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward.
But she can lose, simply because horses, even great ones, can’t perform in the stratosphere indefinitely. She has been in training all year. She began her campaign in February after only a respite at the end of 2008, when she finished her juvenile season by winning the Golden Rod on Nov. 29 at Churchill.
Early in the year, I saw her in New Orleans, and even then she was training and running like something supernatural. And since then, without taking a backwards step, she has progressed steadily. Her Kentucky Oaks was historic, two weeks later on a track she didn’t particularly like she won the Preakness, then she dazzled in the Mother Goose, and then gave an even better performance in the Haskell, defeating Summer Bird by six lengths.
So when does she reach the summit of her potential, when does she level off, when does she demand a moment of rest to recover from this relentless outpouring of superlative effort? She loves to train and loves to run; but that’s all part of an attitude and an invincible spirit that make her unique. When will her body overrule the attitude and spirit to demand a rest?
The great Personal Ensign, largely because of physical problems, raced only 13 times in a three-year career. In 1988, in a lustrous campaign that ended with her victory over Winning Colors in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Personal Ensign had seven races in 6 1/2 months. The great Zenyatta has raced only 12 times in her unbeaten career. Last year, in a memorable championship campaign, she had seven races, taking time off from mid-January until April and never twice racing in the same month.
Horses simply don’t do what Rachel Alexandra has done – that is, they don’t compete from one end of the calendar to the other, at the highest level, while traveling throughout the country. In 1988, Personal Ensign raced at four different racetracks, only one of them outside of the New York-New Jersey area. Last year, Zenyatta raced at four different racetracks, only one of them outside of California. Saratoga will become the seventh racetrack this year to host Rachel Alexandra, who’ll be making her eighth start of the season.
Her campaign could be one of the most impressive the sport has seen since Cigar’s in 1995. Running from January to October, he won all 10 of his starts, at six racetracks. He was able to begin the campaign with a trio of outings at Gulfstream and end it with three at Belmont, and he had a break of 11 weeks along the way, but he performed at a very high level with each and every step around the racetrack. The difference perhaps is that Rachel Alexandra began at high level and steadily has reached higher.
But how much longer can she continue to progress and excel? How much further can she go with this display of superiority? Sam Houston, with James McIngvale as sponsor, has proposed a $1.75 million race in December, the Gallery Furniture Distaff, to bring together Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. But what are the chances that both horses will still be in training in December and still performing up there in the rarefied regions? Almost none.
Given her extensive travel, eight starts could be enough for Rachel Alexandra. If the Woodward is especially demanding, I would expect it to be her final start in 2009. If she again wins impressively and bounces out of the race with her typical enthusiasm, I then would expect her connections to consider one more outing, with the hope that Zenyatta might make an appearance at Belmont Park. But that would have to be the end of Rachel Alexandra's campaign, wouldn't it? Yes, she's special and unique and something of an anachronism, but even she has her limits. We just haven't seen them, and I don't know that we ever will or that we'd even want to.
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