08-29-2009, 11:55 AM
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Churchill Downs
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,969
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Travis Stone
This is a nuts conclusion. I bet Hold Me Back in the Derby, he put in a nifty middle move down the backstretch which was obviously a bit too early. He's never run a big race on dirt but if you consider his move in the Derby, I think he can handle it.
To me the Travers this year is: Can Quality Road handle the stretch-out off little races? And if not, who can jump-up? On Beyers, Summer Bird and Kensei fit the jump-up model. But I don't know if Kensei wants 10 furlongs with his A-game, and Summer Bird, though a useful horse, would have been fourth in the Belmont if it were at 10 furlongs. And in the Haskell, he beat-out Munnings who was obviously out of his comfort zone.
So, while both Summer Bird and Kensei could win, I can't get too excited about betting either of them at shorter prices. And Quality Road in my opinion is one of the most talented horses we've seen in a while, but he's really up against it today.
So, why not take a stab and have some fun? I'm not certainly not taking out a loan against my dog, but he'll be a price on a crazy, wet day.
Enjoy everyone!
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Summer Bird will win the Travers and then lose to a La-bred in the Super Derby.
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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