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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I get it, so what you're saying is that a filly who's perfect on the year, has beaten males twice, scored in a field of 13, has an on the pace running style that keeps her free from trouble and a jockey who cut his teeth at bush tracks in Louisiana is susceptible to all types of hypthetical trip problems. Gotcha.
And if through some confluence of events making all the things you mentioned above happen then a horse who has basically one race of consequence which was run at a distance that suited him to a T can reverse a decision in which he was beaten like a drum by the filly in question. Gotcha.
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So you're saying she'd be a cinch in the Travers?
Regardless of how impressive her last two efforts were, there's no question in my mind that the Travers would be her most challenging assignment to date. Quality Road is probably the most talented male in this crop. Even if he's not up to winning this off one prep race, he plays a huge role in the outcome of the race. With a legitimate pace (very likely with Our Edge and Quality Road), the race could set up for either of the Birds if they run their "A" race. In particular, I agree with Freddy that Summer Bird should be expected to improve significantly off his Haskell. He pressed the pace, not his most effective running style, on the worst part of the Monmouth track on Haskell Day. And it's not like Rachel beat Mine That Bird "like a drum" in the Preakness. The added distance and more quality speed (as opposed to Big Drama who, with only one 2009 start and various pre-race antics, was done at the half-mile pole in the Preakness) could certainly aid his cause, if he's 100% after last week's surgery.