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Originally Posted by TheSpyder
You have got to be kidding on that comment. Followed your comments since I've been here and nothing could be further from the truth.
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I play a lot of tracks. And I play poly and turf. So, turf horses shipping in from other tracks don't present a problem to me, as I've played the surfaces they run on.
I also play longshots, typically. Not 5:1 shots but more like 15:1 and up. On many of the tracks I play (AP, quickly comes to mind presently) there are many plays at these and greater odds that 'make sense'. For example, there was a 25:1 shot at WO yesterday that 'figured', just on simple handicapping alone, every bit as much as the favorites. The horse had run a close 3rd last out, in the same class, against the same horses.
I haven't see this so far at SAR. Nor have I seen it in the past. Typically, it's harder to get this type of price at NY tracks. Do they come in? Sure, but they don't make as much sense as those on other tracks. So, you're typically taking lower odds for a riskier bet. Look at today's 1st. I thought I'd get easily > 10:1 on the 2 horse, even with Dominguez up. At that price, it's worth a play. At 6:1 (or whatever) it ultimately went off, I'd have to be an idiot to play it. And 5:2 on the Parisella 1st time turfer was a hell of a overlay, wasn't it?
Maybe it's not the same for those that are playing 2 year olds. I suppose that there's a chance to hit some bombs there.