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Old 09-13-2006, 07:40 PM
Mike_79 Mike_79 is offline
Les Bois
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 36
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Can I pick C and be in between?

I only play two circuits with them being New York and California. In the winter I mix in Gulfstream as well. I haven't had the need to pay attention to the particulars involved with Polytrack, Cushion track, etc. as of yet. That will all change with the upcoming Hollywood fall meet.

From a handicapping perspective, I'm actually looking forward to it. Pay attention, see what's going on with it, and most importantly no bets until I have some familiarity with how it is out in Cali. If I find an edge, I plan on exploiting it, even if it's a short term one. If I can't find one, then I'll just stick to the turf races out there. I may find it unbettable or I may not. Just going to keep an open mind about it and see how it plays out in Cali.

One thing that may generate some monster plays with the whole Polytrack/Cushion track situation is when horses come off it and run back on the dirt. Sort of in a sense like a turf to dirt type angle. I'll use last year's Gulfstream meet as an example.

Last year two near identical situations presented themselves in mid level maiden claiming races there. Both horses had shown a string of bad races at Turfway Park on Polytrack. Previous to that, each had run at Churchill Downs at a similar maiden claiming level. One horse had run a decent race while the other had shown two "good enough" races for the condition. Both went off at much higher odds relative to the dirt ability they displayed previous to their Polytrack races.

The end result was a tough luck 2nd beaten a neck at 8/1 with Rafael Bejarano aboard and the other was a runaway winner in the 9/1 range (jockey and exact odds escape me right now). Obviously the one I bet was the tough luck 2nd and not the winner. Doesn't it seem to work that way too many times?

Obviously this sample is way too small to show anything significant. It may lead to some solid plays at the Santa Anita winter meet though. If some horses simply do not care for the Cushion Track at Hollywood and go "off form" for a couple of races, it may lead to opportunity when they get back on the dirt at Santa Anita.

From a health perspective for the horses, I'm nowhere near qualified to give an opinion on that. In the long run I just want to see safe racetracks with limited breakdowns. If I never have to witness another breakdown in this game again, it will be a beautiful thing. I'll leave that up to the experts to decide how best to go about it. Until then I'll just continue to help the tracks out by feeding the handle. Good luck.

Last edited by Mike_79 : 09-13-2006 at 07:42 PM.
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