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Originally Posted by tector
Any word on Zenyatta?
Unless it was pretty good, that would mean RA's last three races were all substantially faster than anything Zenyatta has run this year. These three races would include RA's race in the Preakness which, to me, was about as ideal a set-up as a horse like Zenyatta could hope for when facing RA.
If, under those circumstances, RA can run faster than what Zenyatta is doing this year, that doesn't bode well for Zenyatta in any match up.
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Zenyatta's fig logically should be 100 or maybe 101 tops. It was the only synthetic route of the day.
A 103 or higher is in line with her form ... but that means they have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers all running lifetime career tops in the same race .. something that is almost impossible in a 6 horse field of older horses who have each run many times before.
Obviously Beyers don't take weight into account - and they can be overly sensative with the way they do things with big horses like Zenyatta.
By giving Zenyatta a respectable fig in line with her form .. you basically have to overrate the performances of all those horses who finished in behind her.
The correct thing is to give Zenyatta the mediocre number that she ran - and leave handicappers to factor in the big weight shift she gave away for themselves as a reason why the performance was better than her medicore fig would suggest.