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Originally Posted by Dunbar
You are looking at it the right way, but I don't think it's as drastic as you wrote.
You can get 2.4-1 now. If you thought there was a 50% chance Bernardini would make the BC Classic, then 2.4-1 is the same as 6-5 on race day. So I don't know what you mean by "to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1".
I would personally put the chance of a top horse not making the BC Classic at about 30% at this point. We are less than 8 weeks away. If my 30% estimate is right, then 2.4-1 now is roughly equivalent to 1.70 to 1 on race day. (70% of 2.4 is 1.7).
So, IMO 2.4-1 now is way better than 6-5 on race day.
--Dunbar
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Yes, I shouldn't have phrased it as 2-1, I meant it in terms of a 50% chance reducing the 12/5 to 6/5.