6/11 - Hol R5
I think this may be a good race to discuss as a group. It's an optional claimer N1X on the turf going 8.5F for 3 y.o. colts. I find it interesting because you have lots of different angles to try to decipher.
The morning line isn't out yet, but I'll post it when it's up on DRF.
#1 El Scorpio - T. Baze - Yakteem - broke his maiden at 6F at SA in a 75K MCL in March - came back in May at this level but in a sprint on the main track and ran a dull 6th
#2 Rainbow Goose - Rosario - Carava - debuted in a dirt sprint at Tampa and did nothing - dropped down to a $50K claimer on the turf and romped by 10 1/2 vs. a pretty dismal bunch. Looks like he was privately purchased after that one and will be running for the first time for trainer Jack Carava.
#3 Tiger Blitz - Garcia - Cerin - another trying turf for the first time - returned in May after finishing 7th in the G1 Norfolk last year - ran 2nd in an allowance at this distance on the cushion track.
#4 Paddy the Pro - Solis - Gallagher - First time he has surfaced after finishing last in last year's BC Juvenile Turf. He was a bit of a wise guy horse in that race, despite no wins past 6F and none on turf racing exclusively in Ireland.
#5 Brushburn - Talamo - Abrams - Calbred is another stretching out, switching surfaces, and returning off of a lay-off since September 1st of '08. Won his debut for a $100K tag and then finished 4th in a state-bred stakes race at Del Mar.
#6 Del Conte - Nakatani - Baffert - Front-runner's most noteworthy performance was a fourth place finish in the Norfolk last year. Broke his maiden prior to that going 8F on turf and since the Norfolk has finished 9th and 3rd at the same distance on turf.
#7 Meteore - Bejarano - Mandella - Finally broke his maiden last out in early April in his 6th try going 8F on the turf. Has closed very fast in his last 3 and shows a few 7F drills for this.
#8 Dapper Gene - Valdivia - Velasquez - Relatively obscure trainer Danny Velasquez adds blinkers for this gelding who was beaten by the 6 and 9 in his last. Broke his maiden in a turf sprint at Santa Anita 3 back and since then has finished 5th in the La Puente S. and 4th last out - both at 8F on the turf.
#9 Santamonicacanyon - Gomez - Vienna - Finished 2nd in his first turf try going 8F - beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Kelly Leak, who went on to win the surprisingly key Sunland Derby in his next start. This horse also ran in the Sunland Derby finishing 8th in his only dirt attempt. The SD has produced 5 next-out winners including Mine that Bird. In his most recent outing, SMC was beaten by one of those five - Mark S The Cooler going 8F on the turf in a race that also featured Dapper Gene and Del Conte.
#10 - Cleisthenes - Smith - Sadler - Mystery horse makes his stateside debut after a 6 length maiden win at odds of 1/2 going 6F on Brighton's (GB) turf course last month. He received an 88 Racing Post rating for that effort, but the quality of that field may be suspect. He shows a bullet 4F drill on the turf here at Hollywood for new trainer John Sadler.
I have a very strong opinion in this race, but want to hear what other people think first. . .
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