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Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.
Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:
Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.
He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.
Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.
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My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.