I think going without cover probably cost him more than not taking the lead. And, as best as I could determine, GG was pretty much long reigning him on the backstretch; which is not exactly the best way to restrain a horse.
I'll ask it a different way: why would going slower early hurt a horse that's accustomed to running faster on the front end than horses accustomed to running from the rear of the pack, that are closer?
Seems to me, when they turned for home, they all had pretty much the same setup.
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