Quote:
|
Originally Posted by justindew
-
-I understand and respect the opinions of those who took a stand against Pioneerof The Nile in the Derby. Obviously, as a bettor, you have to draw a line somewhere. And eliminating POTN from one's wagers made perfect sense. He was among the favorites and had never run a fast figure, nor had he run on dirt. He was arguably the most logical toss among the favorites. However, those who tossed him must admit that they were tossing him based on what they suspected might happen, rather than what the horse had indicated would happen. It was a toss based almost entirely on speculation (unless you were persuaded to bet against him based on his premature moves in some of his preps). And no horseplayer can fairly say that a stand against POTN was irrational. However, in reading the arguments of some who feel that his 2nd-place finish proved nothing (or even that it reinforced their position that he's "not a dirt horse"), I have to ask what POTN needs to do to show he's likely to be as good dirt as turf and synetetic. By almost every account, he handled the Churchill Downs surface beautifully all week long. Not one professional observer with whom I spoke, be they trainers or clockers, said that he showed anything other than a strong liking for the dirt. Several even said he was a standout. When you combine this (subjective) "fact" with his 2nd-place finish, why do some people continue to insist that he is not a dirt horse? And what does that mean, anyway? Does that mean he is not good enough on dirt to win a graded stakes? A Grade I? Any race? What exactly is the criterion? Is the argument a matter of whether dirt is his favorite surface? It seems like when it comes to this horse, people are arguing different questions, such as...
|
pretty good article.
From my own unique perspective I never doubted whether or not POTN would like dirt. He should be just as comfortable on the dirt as a synthetic. The question for me was whether or not he could get the distance and how he would fare over that added distance against better horses.
He ran a fairly solid race in the Derby. It was basically his average run. It was probably good enough for 5th, 4th or maybe even 3rd in most derbys. He was fortunate to run 2nd with the foul that Gomez committed in the stretch.
He had a great thing going in the prep season on that synthetic that he will never have again. In some ways he is a little like Colonel John - a horse who had advantages on the synthetic prep season in Ca. but could handle dirt just fine, but wasn't able to compete with the better dirt horses.
POTN should be competitive in the Preakness, he isn't capable of running a BIG race, but he can run his same kind of race and hope for a collapse.