Thread: My Derby odds
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Old 04-28-2009, 07:11 AM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
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POTN could go off lower than Friesan Fire. But he shouldn't. What has he proven on real dirt? We've seen that synthetic form is just not representative of real dirt form and must always be viewed skeptically. There also has been speculation that the Beyer figure for Friesan Fire was too low; the Racing Post definitely seems to think so and I'm inclined to agree.

As for the odds pts being too high which was alluded to earlier, I figure takeout in. I certainly wish it were the case where we could have only 4 horses below 15-1 but I'm afraid we'd need a takeout free world to have that happen.

Bullish: Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, Regal Ransom
Bearish: Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy and any other synth specialist
neutral: I Want Revenge, Dunkirk
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