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Originally Posted by Dunbar
That is a huge mistake, IMO. Identifying the horse most likely to win the race is not enough.
I never make a bet unless I think the odds justify the bet. That does not mean I would never bet chalk. I would (and have!) bet a 3-5 shot if I thought it had a 75% chance to win the race. I'll also bet a 60-1 shot if I think the odds should be 40-1.
Unless you are the beneificiary of a truckload of inside info, you need to have some idea what fair odds are for a horse before you bet it.
--Dunbar
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What I meant is that if I like a horse and the public has that horse at 10-1 I am not going to get off of it (unless it is a first time starter). On the flipside, if a horse i love is 3-5 then I will still bet it. I rarely will increase my bet unless it is a hose I really really love. Like Chace City. Since I bet so much, I dont see a reason to increase my wager. I may move a the show wager to the win wager giving me $200 to win and $100 to place.