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Originally Posted by SentToStud
Dunbar, that's pretty much how I bet but, to me, there's one more important factor.
If I think a horse is 4-1 fair odds to win, I'm willing to bet him at 5-1 for $1x. But if the 4-1 fair odds horse goes off at 7-1, I will bet more, say $1.25x. And if he goes off at 10-1, then I max out at $1.50x.
To me, that's the key to success. Having MORE action going when actual/fair is higher.
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It makes sense to do what you are doing, STS. I like the fact that you are only making a 50% bigger bet even when you see a huge discrepancy from your "fair odds". If your fair odds were 100% accurate, a much bigger increase would be justified. Problem is, our "fair odds" are estimates, and it's wise to be conservative in using them.
I size my bet to win a certain amount. Say it's $Z. So, I would bet $Z/2 on a horse that's 2-1 (but only if I think the horse should be 8-5 or less). I'll bet $Z/10 on a 10-1 shot (assuming I think it should be, say, 7-1). But I will shade those bets the same way you do--betting a little more when the discrepancy from my "fair" line is bigger.
The choice of $Z itself is a reflection of my bankroll, my estimated overall edge in capping horses, and my confidence in my ability to estimate that edge.
--Dunbar