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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.
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Let's be more precise. I don't indulge in speed figures but from what I've read here POLY races grade out slower. I don't know if CJ (or someone else) has a POLY to DIRT conversion worked out. If this is the case, and POTN's races are 'historically' SLOWER then my point is not a makeable one. But, 'slower in relation to what'? is my question otherwise. All I know is that this horse has finished ahead of all the horses its faced in CALI. Some of them have done nicely elsewhere.
Tell you this much, and I am NOT a FAN of this horse. I'd be more comfortable tossing Quality Road and Friesan Fire (and I will). I know they can't win without perfect trips. I don't know what this horse can do on the dirt, however.