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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its last 1/8th in what projects to be a FULL SECOND faster than its previous quarter, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.
This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.
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Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...