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Originally Posted by Danzig
seems a couple horses from out west last year didn't do so well on poly, ran ok on dirt, but still didn't make much of a dent in kentucky. gayego immediately leaps to mind. seems like some of the horses pyro beat up on last year in LA had success elsewhere. pyro of course fell on his face in ky, and hasn't done much since then to redeem himself-so that should rule out giving much weight to friesan fire. and yes, i know it's a new year. i also know he hasn't run past 1 1/16th, and is taking a seven week breather before the derby. i'm not so sure both those moves can be overcome, along with a 20 horse field.
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I'm not sure using any comparison to last year's crop is wise as they were extremely weak overall.
The dirt/synth debate could go on all night and never get anywhere. It's extremely horse specific in my opinion. Lumping all synth winners into turfers is dangerous, and visa-versa.