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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, Thorn Song is not much because he, apparently, needs everything his own way to win. While I disagree with this, as I've seen the horse actually run some game races, I wonder why Just As Well, who ABSOLUTELY CANNOT WIN unless he catches a race that completely falls apart, is, apparently, held in higher regard.
While it appears that there'll be plenty of action on the front end, I wouldn't count on this race collapsing enough for the pick up the pieces types.
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I think Thorn Song is at his best when he's alone on the lead. He ran the bang-up race at Keeneland last year on a turf course that played well to speed. I won't dispute that he has run some game races but I don't see him getting clear of House of Silver enough to take them all the way. With him at 5/2 or less, I'll gamble that he's a need the lead type.
As far as Just As Well, I don't think they need to fall apart in front of him. He ran a pretty strong final quarter in the GP Turf Cap in a race that was certainly not collapsing. He needs a well-timed move going a mile but considering the pace will be good, he has the best turf rider on the grounds on his back, and will be a better price than Thorn Song.
What do you think of Twilight Meteor?
NT