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Originally Posted by Kasept
These three look like the value right now...
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52
Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.
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I'd factor in at least 10% for the chance that the horse will not make it to the Derby for various reasons (mainly illness or injury). If I knew Chocolate Candy would be 20-1 on Derby Day if it runs, then I'd prefer that to taking 22-1 today. (Not saying I like the horse at that price--no opinion really)
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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