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The Valor horse is interesting , and the Larry Jones horse has a slight chance of improving.
However Affirmative hasn't shown me any weakness. He has tactical speed, physically impressive, plenty of speed and stamina and he worked great before and after his dominating debut.
Unless it rains enough to soften, I don't see this slight step in class, distance, and surface creating enough real change to make him a
true underlay. If you do bet against - good luck. It will pay well if you beat him.