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Originally Posted by joeydb
That makes sense. I guess I'm looking for something numerical to use for first time starters or maidens with short records. It's very frustrating to not be able to analyze the chances of firsters in a leg of the pick 6. I'm not good with bloodlines and in any case I couldn't get a good "odds" number from that.
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Regarding maidens, I look for good works from the gate followed by a strong, but not necessarily a bullet breeze, afterwards. When you're speaking two year olds, I do think seeing the horse in the paddock beforehand is important...or at least works for me.