[Linny]

Redding Colliery ran a couple of OK tries in Dubai and Close Alliance did look good late that day.
Because there is an actual "flat season" in Europe, the trainers know how to leg them up off of works. Look at the G1 guineas on our Derby day. Many of them are making their first or second start of the year in that very important G1.
The Poly racing is generally far below the turf racing in Britain. I might look to see if any improved from turf to Poly and figure that they might move up more on dirt, if they are dirt bred horses.

As for one of these keeping someone out, so be it. Every US based trainer knew that there might be only 19 berths in the Derby this year. If they couldn't get to the graded earnings threshhold, it is their own fault. They chose an allowance instead of the FOY (or other stake) for Dunkirk and put all his graded stakes "eggs" into one basket. It's the risk you take.

As for some owner sending some busted up nag to the Derby, I doubt it would happen. For one thing, as big as the Derby is to us, to the Brits, it's a nice little jaunt, fun to be part of, but not the be-all and end-all of the racing world. If the winner isn't ready to run his best race in KY, they would probably just skip it. (If I owned the winner and he came up bad after the race, I'd just ask Churchill if maybe I could make the trip, sans horse.) After all, our "Derby day" is their Guineas Day and that's a pretty big event there.

I do wonder if it's permitted to ship a US based horse there for this as a sure way to lock in a Derby spot. If so, THEN I do think you'd see a nag getting in.