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Originally Posted by mes5107
Say you have a $2 Win ticket on a 5/2 horse. The bet pays $7.00. If you take your bet out of the pool entirely, that horse will still pay $7.00. If you increase your win bet to $10, the horse will still pay $7.00 for every $2 wagered. Your $2 (or $10) bet is really insignificant in the win pool.
Now, lets put that $2 into a pick 4 pool. Say the pool is $10,000 after takeout, and you have the lone winning ticket. Your ticket is worth $10,000 (excluding taxes). If one other person has the winning combination, your win drops to $5,000. 4 winning tickets is $2500 and so on. One extra ticket or one fewer ticket really change things.
The times when these win parlays are more $ than the pick 3 or pick 4 bets are just due to a few more people having the winning combination than there should be. In the win pool, the $2 payout is such a small percentage of the pool. The pick 3, 4, or 6 pools pay out a large percentage of the pool to a small number of people. In statistics, it's called variance.
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mes i hear you - so if we take yesterda'ys 5th and before the race goes off we can see the p4 payouts , we notice that the payout with the #2 is less than the payout with the #3 , yet if we look on the boad the #3 is 4/1 and the #2 is 17/1 , shouldn't that discrepency right away alert us that the #2 is very live here because the payout appears to be short in realtion to the win odds? sohuldn't the public have saw this and hammered the #2 to win at 17/1?