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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard.
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The FoY is setting up to be a tricky race imo.
On one hand - it's going to be loaded with horses who are extremely talented sprinter/milers proven capable of running fast for 6-to-7fs ... and if they all run the way they figure to ... the race can absolutely collapse late and make a deep closing winner look a lot better than he is.
On the other hand - let's say the connections of every one of these sharp sprint horses but Notonthesamepage are focusing on avoiding a pace meltdown and commit to extremely patient rate and finish tactics with longer distance races in mind. If that happens - and Notonthesamepage is not pressured and runs back to that insane win on opening day ... it's over. But he's still just not a serious derby horse.
I would think bettors will be skeptical of any winner if the race plays out to either of the extremes...which it might. But I also thought This One's For Phil would be about 20/1 in round #1 of the Derby futures .. and he ended up more than twice that .. so who knows.