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Old 02-13-2009, 12:41 PM
bobselkirk bobselkirk is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Someone on another forum asked a question that I found very interesting. While I understand where Beyer was coming from with the article and I do agree with his point of view, one of reasons he cited for pointing out This Ones For Phil's sudden huge improvement from a figure standpoint. So part of what made the argument was the jump from a career best of 81 to a 117, a 36 point jump. What kind of jump would be considered acceptable? I remember when Bellamy Road got that 120 and he had never been anywhere close to that before. Midway Road got a 124 and hadn't come close to that before. Would a 20-25 point increase for TOFP had been ok? Would Beyer still have written the article if TOFP had gotten a more normal 109 or so? The question comes up now when looking at the number for Haynesfield in the Damon Runyon. He received a 101 originally but it's been downgraded to a 93 now because of the subsequent form of the field in their next races. What if down the line somewhere, the number for TOFP is downgraded to a 109? While still a huge jump, it wouldn't have generated nearly the same attention the 117 did.
Perhaps the 81 prior best BSF is low? Maybe the horse can't turf or go long and his subsequent figs were negatively impacted by surface/distance/# turns issues? Not that these things can explain a 117 BSF.
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