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Originally Posted by King Glorious
All of what you say is very valid. Ideally, you'd love to have every question answered beforehand and have the distance be the only one left. But we won't get that with her or many of the other California based horses. So of course the dirt will be a question but I just don't see any reason to believe that she won't handle it so instead of assuming she won't, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that she will. If she will, I see no other disadvantages for her. The fact that there are colts that will relish is it not as important to me. They may like it more but not have the talent to beat her. Like Golden Doc A might relish the synthetic more than Indian Blessing does but she didn't have a big her talent disadvantage was bigger than her track advantage. So then the question becomes whether or not you think that, all else being equal, she has the talent. I think she does. Your point about the fillies maturing faster is not necessarily in play here. It could be but there's no evidence to say that it's the truth here. As it is, she has every right to continue to develop as the colts do. Until I see where I think they've passed her by, I have to believe that she still has the advantage that she had. The last thing is that I don't think the concession is that she can't be males here. At this point, I'd make her the clear favorite for the SA Derby.
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horses can only mature to a point i would think-perhaps she reached that point earlier, and her peers are still in progress? it's not inconceivable. some mentioned past fillies who failed to go on at three, and i think that early maturity was the explanation in all of them. perhaps in her case it may turn out differently..
at any rate, it's fun watching it all unfold...i'm certainly not against her doing well; but i'm also of the opinion that she's not any better than any of the other top fillies over the past few years. she might be a wow-er, but i just don't think she's a WOW-er.