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Originally Posted by King Glorious
All of this is true but the same can be said for the 2yo males. The only ones that I thought were worth anything last year were Vineyard Haven and Midshipmen and both of them were sent to Dubai. I just don't think that I've seen a member of her generation that's better than her. I'm not so limited in my thinking that I feel it's necessary to differentiate between a female and a male. If she was a male and had done exactly what she's done, she'd be odds-on right now for the Derby.
I agree with Danzig that nothing she did today convinces me she could beat the best males out here but it's what she's done overall that convinces me. Her effort in the Juvenile Fillies was as strong as anything I've seen from any of the males. I also don't understand the general feeling that she won't handle the dirt. Sure, it's a question that's got to be answered but in my opinion, she's got the same chances of liking it as she does of not so for anyone to cite that as a negative is a reach.
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but...
two things may work against her. one, you never want a horse going to the derby that is still learning new things-dirt would be a huge change for her, she's never touched it on the track.
the second thing-there are colts out there who already relish the dirt surface, and will be in their element.
then there's one thing many forget. fillies typically mature faster than colts; that's why so many two year old fillies fool people into thinking they can win the derby, because they most likely could beat their male counterparts at that age.
but a lot changes between january and may, she'll find a far more level playing field by then.
i think stardom bound is a good horse, but i don't find her to be a particularly special one.
if the concession is that she couldn't beat males in cali, on her surface, i don't see how she can win vs a bigger field on a foreign surface.