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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.
I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.
In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.
You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.
Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.
If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!
While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind
* She is a filly, he is a colt
* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.
* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.
Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.
I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.
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Let's just keep it simple and look at the splits for the two horses
the filly:
23.48 23.07 25.63 13.49
the colt:
22.93 22.95 26.57 12.55
If one were to ground his analysis on TIME, as you surely are, then one would 'notice' that the filly basically walked early and SHE was the one 'staggering' late. So while the fact that she dropped the other pacesetters appears impressive, it was the off the pacers in her race that got the worst of it.
And, while the colt ran a very slow 3rd split, he accelerated (projected) the last 1/8th. While the pacesetters in his race got the worst of it, there were others in a similar position to his that could've picked it up late. BUT, they were 'wiped out' as well.
Not saying I want him back but I certainly wouldn't get too excited about her.