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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.
fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.
--Dunbar
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I don't know what the uncertainty would be for that number at Keeneland, but you're right it could be an aberration because of the relatively small number of races run there in one year. there does seem to be a polytrack edge for cutbacks, if you exclude Arlington that is.
fyi, on your favorite bet against angle, i just ran a query for that scenario for last year and found that you're definitely right in avoiding that one.