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Originally Posted by Kasept
Tom,
In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15").
These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer.
Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown.
The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top').
He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG.
G/L today!
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