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Old 12-26-2008, 05:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Liberian Fighter: Got back to his top off the minor layoff and ran a new top in his recent allowance race.
Sky Cape: In looking at his patterns, he seems to run in two race sequences, with his best race always first, and his regression 2nd, usuable based on that fact, and play against in his next start if soon after this start
Dakota Phone: His turf numbers don't compete, but his recent numbers show good form and good health as he has a nice developing pattern.
Fifteen Love: First start in the US he paired his top, usually a sign of a horse about to move forward, perfect spacing, a must include
Medjool: Back numbers maybe and Canani is no fool, don't see it here though
Icemancometh: A touch slow on the numbers but has a developing pattern, trainer change something to consider, especially with it being a recent claim and popped right into a stakes race
Young Joe: His Del Mar race three back was real good, but he really reacted off that performance with two bad performances, not this start but maybe the next if he shows his way back to the '2'
Ten Meropa: Horse has obvious issues with the extreme gaps within races, don't see it against this competition
El Gato Malo: Something I consider very strong is the fact that a horse pairs his top off a very long layoff, to me, that shows progression and health. This one has the surface question mark. This one also has a "!" notation after the numbers, which means that TG feels the effort/number is better then it shows, I call them "Sneaky good efforts", don't see why he wouldn't at least run an 'off' effort thus putting him right there.
Ghetto: This horse is exactly why TG's can be very powerful. He would be my key in this race as if you toss his last effort, especially considering all his synethics have been off efforts (He obviously doesn't like it) he had a great improving line, getting to the '-5'. Post postion is obviously against him, but this horse could be there at the end at a huge number.
Pistol Pete Afleet: Seems to be hanging around the "6" area, which won't be good enough, might be a decent 4 year old though
Gio Ponti: Interesting read, if he runs the 2 that he has been running, they are running for 2nd, but that 4.75 he ran last time could be a sign of regression. I would be playing him to pair the 4.75 or even run in the 5.5 range, and then another layoff

In Pick 3's I would be using Ghetto, El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, and Fifteen Love
Exactas I would be playing Ghetto and Fifteen Love over El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, Gio Ponti, Ghetto, Fifteen Love, Sky Cape, Liberian Freighter
The only thing I would add about Dakota Phone is that his "slow" back turf #'s were very much in line with what he was running on synth at the time. He has since moved forward on the synth, and this will be his first try back on the turf since improving. If he had been running 3's on the main when he ran his 8 on turf, I would be more likely to discount him, but he wasn't.
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