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Originally Posted by eurobounce
Scuds--you are one of the few people on this board who I repsect--you touched on something and I would love to talk it more. When capping a race I hear so many people saying "i am going to try and beat the fav." To me this is silly. Why try to beat someone who you dont think is beatable. I dont care what the odds are in a race. If I like a horse, I am going to bet that horse. Now, I do try to find a vulnerable fav but that is different than just winging a $20 win bet on Dr Pleasure in the Travers. I think that most bettors are silly or they lose sight of the goal--TO WIN MONEY.
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you can beat the fave...if you find the right favorite to beat! the favorite wins about 30-35% of the time...use that stat. i did the other day in the contest on here, pick the winners of all the races on saturday..
i originally wasn't going to play, didn't feel like shelling out the $, low as it is, and poring over the pp's for that.
i ended up going to equibase and looking over the entries. had six winners and three seconds just going off that! go figure....