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Originally Posted by holybull88
cant be three beyers on the upswing. beyer himself was convinced of the bounce theory when he tracked last three beyers were on the upswing the majority of horses declined or bounced in their next start. formulator shows positive rois for almost all trainers with the 3 ascending beyer filter. cant duplicate this when looking thru pps.
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I'm confused. Initially you asked what could be gleaned from 3 straight ascending Beyers and here you say there can't be three straight ascending Beyers...
Bounce theory doesn't preclude that exactly 2 or 3 or even 4 straight improving performances will guarantee a 'bounce' or regression.
Most true regression performances are the result of a SIGNIFICANT jump up in terms of figure-based evaluations. Plenty of horses show ongoing improvement or pair up efforts before a big forward move results in a bounce or regression in the next outing. A horse that makes only the smallest incremental improvement in terms of his figures can go forward endlessly before leveling off or regressing. But it takes a significant physical effort to produce it...
In terms of duplicating ascension on the PP's, I think you don't see them often but they are out there. And if you allow for possible cross-out races in a horse's form cycle, (troubled starts; bad trips; surface disdain, etc.), you can spot hidden upswings.