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Originally Posted by Riot
So where are the exceptional horses? Alot of times they were the result of hybrid vigor, a "nick", and that's pretty homogenized nowadays. Maybe breeders have different opinions than this outside watcher, I don't know.
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A lot of them are coming out of the regional state-bred programs and don't have 'gilt-edged' pedigrees. They aren't as 'valuable' so they aren't hot-house raised and so won't break a bone in their first 5 starts. Horses like Peace Rules and Lava Man.
You are correct about today's 'elite level' horses not being able to race more often, but bloodlines are not the answer, IMHO. The problem is how they are raised. In the olden days, weanlings who became yearlings were put in a field with the others of the same sex and allowed to run, play, and build up bone density. They came to the sales skinny and with awkward angles, ie they looked like yearlings, not 2yos; in the fall, they were taught how to be ridden, and before they went into race training at 2, they had had plenty of conditioning.
Nowadays, the 'better-bred' youngsters have too much invested in them to let them loose in a field with others, for fear they might get hurt; even a non-performance-effecting scar can cut thousands off the sale price. As trainers have started getting these hot-house flowers, they have modified their training methods so that the colts can win a big race before they break down, so that even properly raised animals aren't raced as much as they could.