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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I'd much rather take Bernardini against the field and lay -185. BGC appears to be the only one with any chance of beating Bernardini. I would be shocked to see Bernardini beat BGC and still lose the race. If beat bernardini beat BGC, then he should win the race. so I'd much rather lay -185 than -236.
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-185 is odds of 100/185, or 0.54 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.54) = 65% of the time.
-236 is odds of 100/236, or 0.42 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.42) = 70% of the time.
So, the question is, do the other horses (besides Bernardini and BGC) have a combined 5% chance to win the race? If the other horses have more than a combined 5% chance to win the race, then the -236 on Bernardini vs BGC is the better bet.
For example, if each of the "other" horses' fair odds are 60-1, then it would be better to take the -236 bet vs BGC. (60-1 means about 1.7% chance to win, and 4 x 1.7% is almost 7%. That's bigger than 5%)
That's ignoring the chance that one or more field horses (besides Kip) scratches, however.
--Dunbar