There is no absolute right or mechanical answer on how to play any situation. It's not any fun, but statistically some studies showed even money horses kicked out small profits when bet to show.
If you are trying to make an exacta, everyone else will key the 2/5 horse on top as well, so you really better have some compelling reason to play it with a real longshot- not the second or 3rd choice who you think is long at 8-1 simply because the favorite has 75% of the win pool. If I think I can beat that favorite, I may backwheel with a couple of reasonable choices.
Same for trifectas. You are betting an underlay with the favorite on top and the second favorite on the board. You need to go to the 4th or 5th favorites to make it a fair proposition.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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