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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.
With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.
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I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.
I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.