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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I agree with everything you're saying, and despite your assumption, I don't think that a frontrunner can only get a good trip by running slow fractions.
Your mistake here is forgetting what happened in the race. War Pass was pressed through absurdly fast fractions for four furlongs by Inner Light. Then came a fresh challenge from Tale of Ekati, moving early as usual. All the while Court Vision is slowly sucking up in behind the frontrunner.
Even if War Pass hadn't had Inner Light with him, after War Pass ran :22 (around a turn mind you) and :46 on that glib track, Court Vision had absolutely no excuse not to pass him, let alone Tale of Ekati, who had to run a sub-:23 second quarter.
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Fractions aside, the rabbit was a factor until just before they hit the quarter mark. ToE's "challenge" happened in a 25.43 split. But it wasn't really a challenge and this is key to the race. If ToE is able to put pressure on WP in the turn, then CV wins the race. All ToE is able to do is stagger along (while shutting off the rail for Giant Moon) and luck out when WP collapses late. With ToE not providing the necessary pressure at the key point in the race, WP gets away, and CV does not get the setup you seem to think he did as WP was just too far ahead when he stopped.
Clearly, WP was best in the race. But I don't see how CV ran any worse than the others.
Compare these 2 charts to see the distinction I'm making.