that's probably a good snapshot if the vote was held today.
but it could change in 2 months. obama has a ground war where he just needs to grind it out and hope the economy and unpopular war carry him. but he can't make any mistakes.
i think the republican's nominated the only candidate they had that wouldn't get swamped. he's a moderate who has significant policy differences with the disastrously incompetent leadership in the white house.
it could still be a close republican win. but it could also be a close democratic win or a significant one. absent another terrorist attack there's no chance for a sweeping republican win.
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