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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.
Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.
Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%
As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.
Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.
Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.
Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.
Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.
Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.
Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.
McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.
McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.
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