8/18 Saratoga (Week 4 Finale)
Wrapped up a frustrating weekend Sunday by capping well and wagering poorly a second day in a row. Left a lot of money on the table, particularly a late P4 worth $1,900 ($1) where I think I had the right idea going after the 10th race price. But I blew it.
Ridge Royale ($13.40) delivered as a on top "Best Value-Best Bet" in the 7th to get things started, and though I was unable to edit plays post-SCR/CHG's, I'm hopeful most recognized that AE-11 Stepaside ($6.30) had drawn into the 8th and was a must use. I used Stepaside on my own ticket, (whom you may recall we all hit with in his first Spa start), but then left "Next Best" Summer Patriot ($3.10) off the third leg of the ticket as a budget move... Uggh! Then Sciacca scored in the nightcap with Frisky Rosie ($18.80) and the Quad returns nearly $2,000 for a buck.
Had other OK results including the other "Best Value-Best Bet" Kiss the Cruiser in the opener ($13.40), but overall I felt like it was a "Lost Weekend". Del Mar Carryover brightened the evening with 3 $221.80 consos ($665.40) on the $192.00 I suggested. Hope you did well. Let's wrap up the 2nd trident of the meet with a bang!
SARATOGA RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Windication 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Last Tram 5-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Know the Game 5-2 5th
2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Aoja 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Well Meant 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Head Hoof Heart 8-1 2nd
3rd: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Lorccan 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Raffit 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Lee Stewart 4-1 2nd
$1 Exacta (3-2) Paid $11.70
4th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 More Than a Reason 4-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Pocatello 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 M V P Grand 15-1 6th
5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #9 Ready or Not 8-1 5th
Most Likely: #10 Big Wig 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 The Cuban Hawk 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Titan of Industry 5-2 2nd
$1 Exacta (10-7) Paid $13.80
$1 Trifecta (10-7-4) Paid $41.00
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-7
3: 2-3-5
4: 5-6
5: 4-7-9-10
3x3x2x4 = $72
6th: The Mechanicville, NYB-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Silver Timber 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Can't Refuse 30-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Redefined 2-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Ahvee's Destiny 8-1 WON
7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Sweet Ransom 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Stately 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Country Star 2-1 WON
8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #9 Bagavond 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Mr Sam I Am 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Inside Info 15-1 7th
Super Add: #5 River of Dreams 20-1 8th
9th: 5th Union Avenue, NYB F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #7 By the Light 6-5 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #8 SCR (SCR add #4 Street Sass 12-1 5th)
Super Add: #1 Summer Palace 5-1 7th
10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #7 UNITY 5-2
Best Value: #5 SCR (SCR add #11 Tee With the Tiger 12-1 6th)
Next Best: #8 Multidude 7-2 10th
Super Add: #6 Sir Dunstan 12-1 5th
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-4-6
8: 1-4-5-6-9-10
9: 1-(3/SCR)-4-7
10: 7
3x6x3x1 = $54
$1 Pick 4 (1-6-7-7) $34.75
Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Last edited by Kasept : 08-19-2008 at 02:19 AM.
|