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Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.
PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.
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she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.
the old mans advice was wrong about paper, it only offers you the facts. Its up to you to interpret the facts and decide who to bet on. what do you think you are doing by betting on horses because of the sales price? do you think you are alone doing that and its some magical way to find value?
she may win today, I doubt it, but whether she does or not is not influenced by how much someone was willing to pay for her two years ago.