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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.
I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?
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Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.
PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.