[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

I'm curious how you played it. I thought this post made great sense, but half the rational was based on the assumption that Commentator would be overbet. With your estimate of a 25% to win, Commentator was well underbet. Were you tempted to switch gears and bet him? Or to simply pass on the race?

--Dunbar